Risk Return

 

3989155002_5d21a1b028_z by Ian Sane on Flickr

Photo by Ian Sane on Creative Commons – Flickr.

 

Profit is not proportional to risk. Each can go either way, and neither can be precisely measured. And this for both expected and realized profit and risk.

A good investment is one where expected profit is inversely proportional to expected risk.

The probabilities of success will only be in your favour if your expectations are realistic and well-founded and if your expectations come to pass.

There is always some sort of market involved in investing and you can only be successful if you either guess market direction right and you ride it, or if you believe the market is wrong and you act contrarian.

You can beat the market either by superior fundamental analysis or opportunistic technical analysis.

If we extend the concept of profit to Return on Investment (ROI) we are adding another unknown, the real value of the investment, taking in consideration opportunity cost.

The investment process, therefore, is always based on unknowns and is uncertain.   Risk can never be eliminated.

As long as people participate in markets, their psychology provides the best fertile grounds for successful investors.  If people are eliminated from markets, investment becomes simply a war of technologies.